Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 88369.068478 93222.424128 98071.720686 103277.133645 108703.188157 114189.042735 120151.096302
2025-01-19 80032.143631 87443.401874 95053.703522 103441.927256 112417.395933 121722.538317 132087.910143
2025-01-26 75414.424151 84688.100604 94415.098518 105356.384778 117298.392225 129914.699815 144228.490767
2025-02-02 71912.451523 82627.818317 94067.186848 107151.940277 121667.085068 137237.960147 155166.141300
2025-02-09 68464.691184 80280.534462 93092.804646 107964.469724 124696.197436 142883.175245 164089.828376
2025-02-16 64937.083045 77579.539360 91485.147784 107842.696163 126482.219484 146984.335459 171161.807904
2025-02-23 62267.718555 75669.245135 90602.285491 108381.537551 128874.413486 151654.861131 178789.869673
2025-03-02 59625.517472 73636.144025 89440.070993 108470.127592 130640.149857 155528.055504 185449.156867
2025-03-09 57970.566901 72654.212852 89402.809331 109777.902766 133744.328292 160886.737920 193789.232273
2025-03-16 55435.244549 70512.453027 87902.967562 109276.023228 134657.431093 163653.399172 199089.979918
2025-03-23 54276.154893 69954.835499 88219.407147 110870.315309 137996.320704 169222.617953 207657.259448
2025-03-30 52986.812403 69174.994967 88215.483756 112035.532834 140793.302147 174140.904122 215466.249713
2025-04-06 51163.298187 67703.605918 87356.037603 112167.055527 142374.694887 177670.385350 221718.261091
2025-04-13 49298.144950 66117.786571 86303.410218 112018.057415 143586.112225 180746.282366 227439.844757
2025-04-20 48615.047844 65977.298553 86998.295143 113988.775907 147362.839052 186902.956297 236882.483937
2025-04-27 47948.809196 65823.223362 87649.222572 115886.596744 151044.891905 192956.495006 246234.100179
2025-05-04 46834.677370 65052.721118 87492.498269 116748.813047 153432.281840 197435.406953 253691.547846
2025-05-11 45322.483047 63717.171674 86577.582430 116618.400455 154555.798584 200352.033508 259239.645743
2025-05-18 44211.671994 62865.882526 86243.797136 117192.177003 156536.966028 204312.254335 266074.173887
2025-05-25 42945.928962 61769.548357 85559.278625 117286.499692 157890.651515 207484.619732 271939.094341
2025-06-01 42307.394133 61481.876128 85899.054886 118679.265846 160880.783451 212694.953121 280353.107975
2025-06-08 40881.812044 60097.170942 84773.190689 118144.789317 161390.394047 214792.088978 284885.501744
2025-06-15 40449.622541 60038.305984 85371.628536 119842.523587 164757.122610 220484.523147 293945.036591